A U.S.-led attack on Iraq will result in between 48,000 and 260,000 deaths during the first three months of combat, according to a study by medical and public health experts released in Washington, D.C., today. Post-war health effects could take an additional 200,000 lives.

The report, Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental Costs of War on Iraq, was issued by International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), recipient of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize, and produced by Medact, the organizations United Kingdom affiliate. It is being released today by IPPNW member groups in more than a dozen nations.

Dr. Amy Sisley, a Professor of Surgery at the University of Maryland Medical System, explained the reports findings, "In an era where images of combat are beamed from aircraft, it is too easy to forget about the direct, physical consequences of war. Bombs deafen, blind and blow apart people, riddling them with shrapnel, glass and debris. They collapse buildings on victims, including hospitals and clinics vital to treating the wounded. Unexploded ordinance left behind kills and maims, and
battlefield toxins can contaminate the environment for decades."

Collateral Damage is based on projections from the 1990-91 Gulf War, which led to nearly 200,000 casualties. It analyzes current U.S. combat scenarios and concludes that a new conflict will be much more intense and destructive than the first Gulf War. If nuclear weapons were used, the death toll would rise into the millions.

Robert K. Musil, Executive Director of PSR, summarized the public health impacts identified in the report. "Even so-called high tech war wrecks a society's human service systems and physical infrastructure by disrupting delivery of food, water, medicine and energy supplies. The loss of these necessities of life leads to infection, disease, malnutrition, and starvation on a massive scale."

The aftermath of a U.S.-led attack could include civil war, famine, epidemics, millions of refugees and economic collapse, according to the report. Dr. Victor W. Sidel, a Professor of Social Medicine at the
Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City who advised the report authors, added, "As documented in Collateral Damage, a pre-emptive attack would exacerbate the disastrous levels of death, disease, disability and despair already present in Iraq. At the same time, it would weaken the United Nations, weaken international law, weaken efforts to reduce terrorism and weaken the United States itself."

Dr. Sidel is Past President of the American Public Health Association and held similar positions at IPPNW and PSR.

IPPNW Executive Director Michael Christ offered the groups recommendations to "prevent a human catastrophe:"

a.. First Do No Harm -- the need to ensure that Iraq is disarmed of its weapons of mass destruction does not warrant an attack which will result in massive civilian and military casualties.

b.. Prevent Further Suffering -- a plan must be in place to ensure the supply food, water and basic services such as health care to the people of Iraq who, more than anyone else, have suffered under
Saddam Hussein.

c.. Prohibit Pre-emptive Military Action -- the U.S. should not launch a pre-emptive, unilateral war against Iraq, nor should the U.N. Security Council condone pre-emptive military action.

d.. Support Effective Inspections -- provide sufficient resources and backing to U.N. teams to ensure that the Iraqi regime is disarmed.

Christ concluded, "Neither Iraq's suspected weapons programs nor Saddam Hussein's tyranny provide moral or military justification for risking the lives of massive numbers of innocent civilians. We urge all nations to spare the innocent in favor of full and effective inspections."

TO ORDER Copies of Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental Costs of War on Iraq are available to non-media individuals and institutions on request for $7.00, which includes shipping (first-class mail) and handling. Quantities are limited; bulk orders up to 20 can be ordered at $5.00 per copy including S&H.

Credit card payment is preferable so please include type of card, card number, name, and expiration date. Please send an e-mail with your complete contact information and payment information to comm@ippnw.org

If you have questions, please call 617-868-5050 ext. 200. The report is also available on-line at www.ippnw.org. Thank you.