International Crisis Group - Media Release
Baghdad/Amman/Brussels, 11 June 2003: The U.S. administration
in Baghdad, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) is facing
a serious and potentially dangerous credibility gap. A new ICG
briefing paper, Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock* says the CPA
must urgently address Iraqis’ immediate concerns – personal
security, the restoration of basic amenities (electricity, cooking
gas, water) and social welfare (health services and wages). If
unable to do so, and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before
the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk
that serious trouble will break out.
ICG Middle East Project Director Joost Hiltermann
said: “The
CPA is banking on the prowess of its military forces, the talents
of its hard-working staff and a bit of luck to overcome both the
security challenge and the many logistical hurdles it faces before
the summer heat descends. If the gamble fails, its legitimacy in
the eyes of Iraqis may suffer a defeat that could prove difficult
to reverse and deal a serious, if not fatal blow to the political
transition that today still holds out the prospect of significant
material change in the lives of all Iraqis”.
Even senior American civilians in Baghdad expressed their concern
to ICG at the near-total lack of advance preparation for the post
war needs of Iraqi society. Moreover, U.S. officials are virtually
cut off from the society they are supposed to be helping back onto
its feet. Permitted to move about the city only with military escorts,
the CPA communicates with the Iraqi population by summary edicts
issued from behind the locked gates of a vast former Saddam Hussein
palace. These have been widely met with a mixture of outrage, resignation,
puzzlement and a profound sense of disempowerment.
The 16 May proclamation on the “disestablishment” of
the Baath Party was applauded in some quarters, but was more widely
criticised for its sweeping nature and disregard for due process.
A more recent order disbanding the army and other security forces
threatens to put hundreds of thousands of mostly young men on the
streets without a serious prospect of work, or the promise of a
pension. Many of these, it is feared, will end up joining the gangs
of thieves that roam the streets, or forming the nuclei for future
armed resistance to what is already referred to as the American
occupation.
ICG Middle East Program Director Robert
Malley said: “Should
perceptions on the ground not rapidly change, the political liberation
from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would become for a majority
of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes
in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months
will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as
well”.
ICG urges the CPA to implement a number of specific steps to restore
public order and essential services, repair basic infrastructure,
improve its media capabilities and public profile, reconsider the
sweeping de-Baathification edict and empower Iraqis by handing
over day-to-day administration and accelerating elections at the
local and institutional level.
Media Contacts
Katy Cronin (London) +44 20 7981 0330
e-mail: media@crisisweb.org
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536 00 65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
Read the full ICG report on our website: www.crisisweb.org
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